In the movie Mr. Baseball, an old pro baseball player (Tom Selleck) moves to Japan for his final couple years of professional ball.  When he gets there, he does well until his opponents discovers a hole in his swing.  Selleck cannot hit the Japanese Shuuto pitch and strikes out every time.  He eventually learns to adapt his swing and curb his crude racist attitudes and winds up hiting the pennant-winning RBI.  Dom Capers’s 3-4 defense seems to be similar to Tom Selleck’s swing:  it has a major hole that can be exploited at will.

Fortunately for the Packers, many teams in the NFL do not have the personnel to exploit this weakness.  There are three keys to exploiting the weakness in the Capers defense.

Somewhere in the desert, Arizona head Coach, Ken Whisenhunt, Defensive Coordinator and Dom Capers disciple, Bill Davis, along with the rest of the defensive staff are scratching their heads trying to answer the question, “How do we cover Tight End Jermichael Finley?”  Finley has become a go-to guy for the Green Bay Packers.  In the last five games, he’s had 28 receptions for 337 yards and four touchdowns.  Finley has an incredible combination of size (6′5″ 250lbs), speed, hands and exceptional athletic ability.

Lately, he has specialized in the goal line corner fade route.  This route has caused defenses fits.  Finley is taller than most linebackers and defensive backs and to add to that, he has an incredible jump.  When QB Aaron Rodgers throws the ball high into the corner of the endzone, there are few in the league who have a shot at defending Finley.

The two defensive backs on the Cardinals who are not six foot or shorter are CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (6-1½) and SS Adrian Wilson (6-2½.)  DRC is good at coverage and a ball hawk, but is not great to match against Finley because he hates to tackle and gives up 60 pounds in bulk.  He needs to be covering WR Greg Jennings or Donald Driver.  Wilson is a hard hitting, blitzing safety and not really a coverage safety.  He mainly tries to intimidate receivers and tight ends off of their routes.  This probably won’t work as Finley hasn’t been intimidated by hard hitting safeties in the past, such as SS Louis Delmas.

The Cardinals are for sure trying to figure out a solution to the Finely mismatch.  There just doesn’t seem to be much hope.  Look for Finley to have a big game in what should be a Packer’s victory.  Go Pack Go.

The upcoming playoff game in Arizona should be a milestone for the Green Bay Packers; the first playoff victory without Brett Favre since the 1982 strike shortened season Super Bowl Tournament.

1. The Preseason Preview

As noted in our article “The Road to 12-4,” the Packers dominated the Cardinals in the third game of the preseason.  During the first half of that game, when all the starters were playing for both teams, the Packers completely dominated all phases of the game.  The Packers racked up 38 points in the first half while only allowing 10. Week 17 was no different.  If you think that preseason doesn’t matter, we will refer you once more to former Cardinals coach Dennis Green’s quote from his famous rant:  ”We played them in preaseason. Who the hell takes a third game of the preseason like it’s bullshit?”  Dennis Green was right.

2. The Crushing Week 17 Victory

The Packers came in to Phoenix on Sunday to win.  The Cardinals came in to prevent injuries to their starters.  The Packers accomplished the teams’ goals.  The Cardinals failed miserably.  From the opening drive of the game, it was Packer domination.  The Packer offense played the first series against all the Arizona defensive starters.  They moved the ball 69 yards on 10 plays for a touchdown.  Kurt Warner took a total of 9 snaps and could barely move the ball against the Packers defense.  Another frightening aspect of the game for the Cardinals is that Charles Woodson completely shut down their biggest playmaker, 4 x Pro Bowl WR Larry Fitzgerald.  The Packers were clearly physically dominating the Cardinals in this game as well as playing at a higher level of finesse. The game also caused injuries to Arizona Pro-Bowl CB Dominique Rodger-Cromartie (knee), 3 x Pro-Bowler WR Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee), and DE Calais Campbell (thumb), all who are questionable for this weeks game.

Beyond the domination and the injuries inflicted in this game, the psychological impact of being completely dominated in a game, regardless if it is a “meaningless” game, has to be negative.  When the cameras showed the Cardinals sideline, you could see the hangdog and defeated expressions on the Cardinals players faces, starters and backups alike.  The Cardinals can tell themselves that this game was meaningless, but by their expressions, it clearly had meaning.  While across the field, you could see the Packers fired up and reveling in their victory.  It will take an exceptionally strong team to bounce back from this defeat and a great coach to galvanize the hangdog Cardinals.

For the Packers, it will be next to impossible for them to forget their crushing of the Cardinals.  The high level of swagger that the Pack will have coming out of the tunnel at University of Phoenix Stadium  will be visible from the nose bleed seats on Sunday.  The Packers have not let up one iota and are entering the playoffs at a full gallop.  Winning 7 out of their last 8 games gives them the momentum going into the playoffs.  As long as the Packers don’t let off the gas, they should be able to dispatch the Cardinals.

3. The Battle in the Trenches
One thing was clear in both the preseason game and the week 17 game: the Packers won the battle in the trenches.  The Packers defense, which rarely sent more than four pass rushers against the Cardinals last Sunday, completely controlled the line of scrimmage.  The results were clear.  The Packers forced their first safety since over 5 years with a holding call in the end zone.  The Packers defensive line and linebackers knocked QB Matt Leinart to the turf countless times and help pressure a number of bad throws, including three interceptions.

The Packers’ offensive line did a good job protecting Aaron Rodgers and opening holes for the running game.  The only sack the Packers allowed was in the 4th quarter; by then, they were resting their o-line starters.  The Packers rushed for over 100 yards thanks to the holes the line helped open.  The Cardinals did not blitz much on Sunday, but if they do, they will give Rodgers those hot routes which he is very good at hitting.  When the Packers offensive line can hold off a four man rush and the defense needs to blitz to get pressure, it is usually a long day for the defense.

These three reasons along with other give us here at Lombardi Sweep great confidence in a Packers Victory.  Go Pack Go!

Two coaches come into Sunday’s playoff game between the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in very different positions.  Ken Whisenhunt and Mike McCarthy are almost the same age (47 and 46 respectively) and, though both have been head coaches for a relatively short time, both have had surprising successes only to fall short in big games.  Two years ago, McCarthy’s 13-3 Packers lost to the Wild Card New York Giants in the NFC Championship.  Last year, Whisenhunt lost Super Bowl XLIII to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The two coaches had different approaches coming into Sunday’s game:

Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt took a cautious approach, Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy kept the Packers at full bore most of the day.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Coach McCarthy made the right decision.  (I recommended such an approach, not that he cares what I think).  However, I’m not totally sure that Whisenhunt made the wrong decision either.  Had he also played “full bore” and lost, it could have been even worse for the morale of his team.  Both coaches have important tasks ahead of them:

1. 

   Whisenhunt has two very difficult tasks: one tactical, one emotional.  He needs to come up with a game plan–a brilliant one–that leverages his superior wide receivers and somehow stops the Packers’ potent offense.  At the same time, he needs to convince his team–with the help of his veteran quarterback–to forget what they experienced Sunday and believe they can win; in fact, believe they can dominate.  It’s a tall order and I’m not sure Bill Belichick and Knute Rockne working together could accomplish it.  Still, Whisenhunt has surprised before, and if the Cardinals make a game of it, my respect level for him will rise greatly.

2. 

   McCarthy may seem to have the easier job.  Green Bay, as Bob McGinn correctly put it, “crushed” the Cards.  ”It was the type of beating,” he wrote, “that might suggest physical superiority.”  But, as Lombardi Sweep has reported before, McCarthy isn’t always able to deliver the knockout blow to a reeling opponent.  The coach sometimes derided as McGordita needs to have his team running onto the field on Sunday tasting blood.  I would like to see the Packers, if they win the coin toss, elect to kick off and give the Cardinals and particularly Kurt Warner an early diet of dirt and grass. A quick 3-and-out and a hard hit or two (clean of course) on the Cardinals’ aged quarterback might put the team in mind of their previous loss.   I would further recommend that McCarthy call some of the same plays that scored big the previous week.  Make Arizona despair.  Physically punish them.  By halftime, let’s see them hang their heads.

The Packers’ road to the Super Bowl starts at University of Phoenix Stadium.  Here at Lombardi Sweep, we are going to be overly optimistic and get way ahead of ourselves.  Assuming the Packers win out in the playoffs, these are their possible paths to the big show.  All depend upon the outcome of the Cowboys-Eagles Wild Card game.

1. Cowboys win the Wild Card game – The Packers will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints and the Cowboys will play the Vikings in the Minnesota.  Assuming the Packers beat the Saints, they will will either travel to Dallas or Minnesota for the NFC Championship game.

2. Eagles win the Wild Card game – The Packers will travel to Minnesota and the Eagles will play in New Orleans.  Assuming the Packers beat the Vikings, the Packers will either play the NFC championship in New Orleans against the Saints or host the Eagles in Lambeau for the NFC championship.

Now back to the present moment, beating the Cardinals again.  Go Pack Go!

The opening play of the game Packers Steelers game was a 60 yard pass touchdown pass From Ben Roethlisberger to Rookie WR Mike Wallace .  Bush’s inexplicable blown coverage would alter this game in more ways than the 7 points to the Steelers.  This would be the first crack in defensive coordinator Dom Capers faith in himself. For most of the game, Dom Capers stuck with his original game plan.  He would blitz Roethlisberther often and try to contain him in the Pocket.  We never got to see the what Caper’s plan for the run as neither team ran the ball or even attempted to run the ball.  Roethlisberger spent the first half terrorizing the Packer’s secondary, engineering 3 touchdown drives against the Packers.   Roethlisberger largely would target the receivers covered by freshly promoted defensive backs Jarrett Bush and Josh Bell along with ILB A.J. Hawk, who had problems covering TE Heath Miller.

In the second half, the Packers defense contained the Steelers to three field goals.  The Packers offense  scored 22 points in the fourth quarter to put the Packers up 36-30 with 2:06 left on the clock, Pittsburgh’s ball on their own 14.  This is where we saw Capers lose his faith in himself.  After playing the Steelers the aggressively the whole game, Dom Capers would change his defensive strategy on this last drive.  The Packers started playing exclusively nickel and dime coverages during this final drive, usually in a soft zone.  Capers never rushed more than 4 this drive and often only 3.  Roethlisberger had plenty of time to pick apart the Packer’s secondary in this bend, don’t break defense.  Against this defensive scheme, the Steelers went 86 yards in 15 plays.  This drive culminated with a 19 yard touchdown pass to Mike Wallace at the end of regulation.  After Josh Reed trotted on the field for a chip shot extra point, the Steelers won 37-36.

After the game, Dom Capers said “Obviously, you get influenced when on the first play of the game they threw the ball over the top of us for a touchdown. That was a four-man rush with straight man coverage.”  It sounds like Capers lost some faith in his defense and his scheme for Pittsburgh after the first play.  Capers defended his switch to Nickel and Dime defense by saying ”You don’t want to let them go the distance in one play.  You want to make them have to work and make a play. We had our chances to make plays. We just didn’t get them made.”

I will concede to Capers that the Packers had their chances to make plays to win the game in the soft zones, but they just didn’t make them.  CB Tramon Williams dropped what should have been an interception early in the drive.  Jarrett Bush picked off Roethlisberger only to have his interception negated by an illegal contact penalty.  Then worst of all, DE Cullen Jenkins missed a game ending sack on Roethlisberger.  If any of these play had been made, the game would have been a Packer victory.

However, I hate the fact that he switched to this soft zone, which I believe exacerbated our weakness on defense.  The season ending injury of CB Al Harris promoted the inconstant Jarrett Bush to nickel and midseason pick up Josh Bell to dime back.  By giving Roethlisberger all day to throw the ball, the Packers gave Pittsburgh’s talented receiving corps, which includes two Super Bowl MVPs, time to get separation from our inconsistent and untested nickel and dime backs.

The aggressive blitzing defense Capers schemed for the Steelers, which did not allow a touchdown in the second half, was scrapped in the last two minutes.  I believe that is was because Capers lost faith in his own scheme.  Instead of sticking with his scheme that had held the Steelers to 9 points in the second half, he lost confidence in his players and himself.  I believe Capers then threw the defense out in a formation they have not played often this year because he got scared.  Saying whether or not the Packers would have won with that defense is impossible, but I think it gives the Packers the best chance.  I still believe that Capers is the answer to the Packers defense and has done an admirable job.  I just would have liked to have seen a Dom Capers defense on the field for the last two minutes of the game.

It was a productive week for the Packers in their quest to play 17 games this year.  The Packers defeated the Bears.  The Eagles beat the Giants pretty solidly on Sunday Night Football and pushed the Eagles into top spot in the division.  Dallas continued its ‘December slip’ as the Chargers beat the Cowboys.   This combination set up the Packers for a possible week 15 clinch.  The Packers’ Magic Number is two, they need to win two games or have the Giants or Cowboys lose two.  The Packers hold the tie breaker over Dallas due to their head-to-head victory and are two games ahead of the Giants.  If the Packers win and either Dallas or the Giants lose, the Packers clinch a playoff berth in week 15.

Let’s look team-by-team:

Eagles (9-4) - The Eagles came up with a huge win on Sunday night against the Giants.  They are now holding the top position in the NFC East.  They will be looking to stay on top of the division and host San Fransisco next week. The last two weeks of the season will be tough for the Eagles; they face the Broncos and Cowboys.

Packers (9-4) - The Packers will have a tough game this week at Pittsburgh and will need to play better to win.  If they lose, it will be disappointing but thankfully they play the much weaker Seahawks the following week. The Packers finish the season playing the Cardinals in what may be a meaningless game for both squads.

Cowboys (8-5) – The Cowboys suffered a tough loss to the San Diego Chargers.  They lost their spot on top of the NFC East and now their playoff hopes are in jeopardy.  Blame either Wade Phillips or their very challenging December schedule but the Cowboys are slipping.  They have their work cut out for them and play the undefeated Saints this week.  Their last two games are against the Redskins and the Eagles.

Giants (7-6) – The Giants’ loss last night was rough on their playoff hopes.  The one thing they have going for them is that they have a weak schedule going into the stretch.  They face the Redskins, Panthers, and the Vikings, who may be  resting key players..  If they lose two more games, its locks in a Packers’ playoff berth.

The Packers are in a great position to go 12-4 and win 8 games straight.   I thought the Packers would be content to get to 8-8 after the Tamp Bay disaster, but it is wonderful how wrong you can be.  The Packers are poised to turned their 4-4 season to a stunning 12-4 wild card team.  All the Packers remaining games are winnable.  The remaining opponents, the Bears, Steelers, Seahawks and Cardinals are a combined 24-25 with three teams out of the playoff hunt and a divisional winner.  These are the games the Packers have to win to finish 12-4.

Bears, Soldier Field – The Bears (5-7) are an empty shell of what they used to be.  They cannot run the ball, they cannot pass the ball, they turn over the ball and they cannot score in the red zone.  The defense, that was once dominate, is now just average, suffering from injuries and aging of its veterans.  You can ready more about how terrible the Bears are here.  There is only way I can see the Bears winning is with special teams touchdowns and very sloppy ball control on the part of Green Bay.  As they still say up in Lambeau, even 20 years after Majkowski’s instant replay touchdown, the Bears still suck.

Steelers, Heinz Field - The Steelers (6-7) are having an extremely disappointing season.  They have been hampered by injuries to their big playmakers, SS Troy Polamalu and QB Ben Roethlisberger.  Their level of play seems to have fallen off a cliff as earlier this season they were 6-2.  Even though the Steelers have suffered some embarrassing loses this year, (the Bears, Raiders, Chiefs, and most recently the Browns,)  they are still extremely dangerous, especially at home.   The Steelers are going to have a long week  of rest and preparation for the Packers, and even in this meaningless game, the Steelers will be coming out to play .  The Packers have the tools to beat this team, but they will have to play well.

Seahawks, Lambeau Field – The Seahawks (5-7) are not having a good season.  This team is undergoing a rebuilding year under their new head coach, Jim Mora Jr.  They have not played well this season nor is much expected of them.  They rank in the bottom third on defense and offense.  The Packers have always seemed to have Seattle’s number when they come to Lambeau field and the Seahawks 1-5 road record does not bode well for them either.  I do not believe that the Seahawks pose a threat to the Packers unless they look past this game.

Cardinals, University of Phoenix Stadium - The Packers are likely going to be playing a game that is meaningless to the Cardinals (8-4).  To add to that, it maybe a meaningless game the Packers , who could be playing them the next week in the playoffs.  If these two teams are meeting in the playoffs the following week, the Cards would be very unlikely to want to show any of their tricks and not play to win.  However, I cannot see McCarthy not playing to win regardless if the game has no meaning.  If the game does have playoff implications and both teams come out to win, things still look good for the Packers.  I will quote former Cardinals coach Dennis Green ,”We played them in preaseason, who the hell takes a third game of the preseason like it’s bullshit?”  This year the Packers played the Cardinals in the third game of the preseason, and the Packers first team administered a complete whooping on the Cardinals,  scoring 38 points and allowing 10 points in the first half.  If the first string Packers delivered a total beat down to the first string Cardinals then, I see no reason why they cannot do that now.

I maybe overly optimistic for the Packers but I think that barring injuries, the Packers are set up for an 8 game winning streak going into the playoffs.  I really cannot see them doing worse than 11-5.  There is a lot of excitement in seeing your team get hot going into the playoffs, and that could very well be the Packers this year.  Go Pack Go!

One of the joys of being a Packers fan located in Chicago this year has been watching the Bears struggle.  They are downright terrible.  They just came off a four game losing streak, thanks to eeking out a victory against the hapless Rams.  Through the course of the season, the media in Chicago has gone from hyping the Bears to being disgusted with their crybaby quarterback to debating which person in management to fire.  The choices now include head coach Lovie Smith, offensive coordinator Ron Turner, and general manager Jerry Angelo.  Many Bears’ fans are suggesting all three. The Bears’ confidence is shattered and the coaching staff is exhausted.  The defects are glaring on both sides of the ball.  The team is dispirited and heartless.What was once a great defense is now  plagued with injuries and declining veterans.  The Bears have lost LB Brian Urlacher, LB Pisa Tinoisamoa, DT Dusty Dvoracek, and DE Henry Melton for the season.  Their secondary has seen a little life with Al Alfalava and Charles Tillman, but they get torched all too often.  The unit is in no way aided by a pitiful offense. Gaines Adams, who they acquired from the Buccaneers for a 2nd round pick, has been a complete non-factor, and only has added to their mounting problems.  The Bears are now the 15th ranked defense, allowing 330.9 yards and 22.5 points a game.  They remind me of a once great rock band, touring with one or two original members. The Bears offense is now 24th overall and 31st in rushing.  As Lombardi Sweep correctly predicted way back in the preseason, Crybaby Cutler was an overrated and overhyped quarterback who has yet to prove anything.  He throws way too many interceptions, many of the them in the red zone.  But as bad as he’s been, the blame does not lie solely on his limp shoulders:  The offensive line is a sieve and gives Cutler no time;  the best of the Bears wide receivers would be a number 3 on any other team and is often in the wrong spot; and Matt Forte is having a devastating sophomore slump.  He’s only had one 100 yard game  this season and averages an underwhelming 3.4 yards a carry.  The Bears offense on paper certainly pose no threat to the number 1 defense in the league.

Fortunately for the Packers, the Bears have mortgaged their future to obtain The Whiny One and Gaines Adams.  They will not have a draft pick in the 2010 draft until the 4th round, which will make it very hard for the Bears to improve next year.  The other big question is if Cutler will be able to survive the Media onslaught that may contribute to breaking his confidence.  Lombardi Sweep has taken great joy in watching the Bears fall from grace, and will enjoy it even more when the Packers destroy them Sunday in Chicago.

This rematch of the Packers and the Bears is much different than their meeting on opening night.  The Bears’ collapse has coincided with the Packers ascension to the upper ranks of the NFC.  The Bears will probably play their last full game of the season against the Packers.  Lovie Smith has always stated that beating the Packers is one of his goals and will do his best in this game.  However, we are very confident that these efforts will come up well short.  Hopefully the Packers will get some quality reps for Tramon Williams and Jared Bush and get them ready for covering a challenging Steelers receiving corp.  There should also be good opportunity for the Packers to finally  establish their running game.

The upcoming grudge match between the Packers and the Bear is boding well for the Packers.  Look for a close game until the late second half when the Packers pull away.  Then enjoy the beating to come.  Go Pack Go!

The Wild Card race has certainly tightened after last weekend.  We saw the 49ers fall out of the hunt after a loss to the Seahawks.  The Falcons suffered a decisive defeat by the Eagles and are all but eliminated.  The Eagles and the Giants both beat conference opponents.  The Packers won, and showed why they are the highest ranked defense in the NFL.

The NFC East division race is getting heated.  The Cowboys loss to the Giants puts the NFC East divisional title back within reach for the Eagles and the Giants.  Right now the Eagles and Cowboys both have an 8-4 record with the Cowboys having the head-to-head tie breaker.  Both teams will face each other again in week 17 in a match that very well may determine the divisional winner.

Conventional wisdom is that the Packers need 10 wins to secure a playoff berth.  The Packers securing a win against a solid AFC squad has really helped their case.   I believe that with games against the self destructing Bears and  the Seahawks at Lambeau, the Packers are in prime position to get those 10 wins and maybe more.

Cowboys (8-4) – If the season ended today, the Cowboys would win the head-to-head tie breaker against the Eagles and therefor, win the NFC East.  The Cowboys defeat by the Giants has put a serious question mark on their ability to win the division.  They have to play some tough teams to keep their slot.  Their remaining games are the Chargers, Saints, Redskins and the Eagles.

Eagles (8-4) - If the season ended today, Philadelphia would win the conference record tie breaker over the Packers and claim  the number 1 wild card slot.  The Eagles just trounced the Falcons this week and are looking good.  They do not have time to take a breather and travel to New York to play the Giants.  Their remaining games are the Giants, 49ers, Broncos and Cowboys.

Packers (8-4) -If the season ended today, Green Bay would win the second wild card berth.  The Packers were able to overcome sloppy play and pull out a win against a good Baltimore team.  The Packers get the privilege of going to Chicago next week to play the Bears.  Their remaining games are the Bears, Steelers, Seahawks and Cardinals.

Giants (7-5) – Even with a big win against the Cowboys, the Giants are going to have to fight hard to remain in competition.  They travel to Philadelphia this week and then finish out the year playing the Redskins, Panthers, and the Vikings

Falcons (6-6) – The Falcons host the Saints this week.  Unless they win this game, which the probably won’t, they are out of the hunt.