In the movie Mr. Baseball, an old pro baseball player (Tom Selleck) moves to Japan for his final couple years of professional ball.  When he gets there, he does well until his opponents discovers a hole in his swing.  Selleck cannot hit the Japanese Shuuto pitch and strikes out every time.  He eventually learns to adapt his swing and curb his crude racist attitudes and winds up hiting the pennant-winning RBI.  Dom Capers’s 3-4 defense seems to be similar to Tom Selleck’s swing:  it has a major hole that can be exploited at will.

Fortunately for the Packers, many teams in the NFL do not have the personnel to exploit this weakness.  There are three keys to exploiting the weakness in the Capers defense.

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Somewhere in the desert, Arizona head Coach, Ken Whisenhunt, Defensive Coordinator and Dom Capers disciple, Bill Davis, along with the rest of the defensive staff are scratching their heads trying to answer the question, “How do we cover Tight End Jermichael Finley?”  Finley has become a go-to guy for the Green Bay Packers.  In the last five games, he’s had 28 receptions for 337 yards and four touchdowns.  Finley has an incredible combination of size (6’5″ 250lbs), speed, hands and exceptional athletic ability.

Lately, he has specialized in the goal line corner fade route.  This route has caused defenses fits.  Finley is taller than most linebackers and defensive backs and to add to that, he has an incredible jump.  When QB Aaron Rodgers throws the ball high into the corner of the endzone, there are few in the league who have a shot at defending Finley.

The two defensive backs on the Cardinals who are not six foot or shorter are CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (6-1½) and SS Adrian Wilson (6-2½.)  DRC is good at coverage and a ball hawk, but is not great to match against Finley because he hates to tackle and gives up 60 pounds in bulk.  He needs to be covering WR Greg Jennings or Donald Driver.  Wilson is a hard hitting, blitzing safety and not really a coverage safety.  He mainly tries to intimidate receivers and tight ends off of their routes.  This probably won’t work as Finley hasn’t been intimidated by hard hitting safeties in the past, such as SS Louis Delmas.

The Cardinals are for sure trying to figure out a solution to the Finely mismatch.  There just doesn’t seem to be much hope.  Look for Finley to have a big game in what should be a Packer’s victory.  Go Pack Go.

The upcoming playoff game in Arizona should be a milestone for the Green Bay Packers; the first playoff victory without Brett Favre since the 1982 strike shortened season Super Bowl Tournament.

1. The Preseason Preview

As noted in our article “The Road to 12-4,” the Packers dominated the Cardinals in the third game of the preseason.  During the first half of that game, when all the starters were playing for both teams, the Packers completely dominated all phases of the game.  The Packers racked up 38 points in the first half while only allowing 10. Week 17 was no different.  If you think that preseason doesn’t matter, we will refer you once more to former Cardinals coach Dennis Green’s quote from his famous rant:  ”We played them in preaseason. Who the hell takes a third game of the preseason like it’s bullshit?”  Dennis Green was right.

2. The Crushing Week 17 Victory

The Packers came in to Phoenix on Sunday to win.  The Cardinals came in to prevent injuries to their starters.  The Packers accomplished the teams’ goals.  The Cardinals failed miserably.  From the opening drive of the game, it was Packer domination.  The Packer offense played the first series against all the Arizona defensive starters.  They moved the ball 69 yards on 10 plays for a touchdown.  Kurt Warner took a total of 9 snaps and could barely move the ball against the Packers defense.  Another frightening aspect of the game for the Cardinals is that Charles Woodson completely shut down their biggest playmaker, 4 x Pro Bowl WR Larry Fitzgerald.  The Packers were clearly physically dominating the Cardinals in this game as well as playing at a higher level of finesse. The game also caused injuries to Arizona Pro-Bowl CB Dominique Rodger-Cromartie (knee), 3 x Pro-Bowler WR Anquan Boldin (ankle, knee), and DE Calais Campbell (thumb), all who are questionable for this weeks game.

Beyond the domination and the injuries inflicted in this game, the psychological impact of being completely dominated in a game, regardless if it is a “meaningless” game, has to be negative.  When the cameras showed the Cardinals sideline, you could see the hangdog and defeated expressions on the Cardinals players faces, starters and backups alike.  The Cardinals can tell themselves that this game was meaningless, but by their expressions, it clearly had meaning.  While across the field, you could see the Packers fired up and reveling in their victory.  It will take an exceptionally strong team to bounce back from this defeat and a great coach to galvanize the hangdog Cardinals.

For the Packers, it will be next to impossible for them to forget their crushing of the Cardinals.  The high level of swagger that the Pack will have coming out of the tunnel at University of Phoenix Stadium  will be visible from the nose bleed seats on Sunday.  The Packers have not let up one iota and are entering the playoffs at a full gallop.  Winning 7 out of their last 8 games gives them the momentum going into the playoffs.  As long as the Packers don’t let off the gas, they should be able to dispatch the Cardinals. (more…)

Two coaches come into Sunday’s playoff game between the Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers in very different positions.  Ken Whisenhunt and Mike McCarthy are almost the same age (47 and 46 respectively) and, though both have been head coaches for a relatively short time, both have had surprising successes only to fall short in big games.  Two years ago, McCarthy’s 13-3 Packers lost to the Wild Card New York Giants in the NFC Championship.  Last year, Whisenhunt lost Super Bowl XLIII to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The two coaches had different approaches coming into Sunday’s game:

Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt took a cautious approach, Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy kept the Packers at full bore most of the day.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Coach McCarthy made the right decision.  (I recommended such an approach, not that he cares what I think).  However, I’m not totally sure that Whisenhunt made the wrong decision either.  Had he also played “full bore” and lost, it could have been even worse for the morale of his team.  Both coaches have important tasks ahead of them:

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The Packers’ road to the Super Bowl starts at University of Phoenix Stadium.  Here at Lombardi Sweep, we are going to be overly optimistic and get way ahead of ourselves.  Assuming the Packers win out in the playoffs, these are their possible paths to the big show.  All depend upon the outcome of the Cowboys-Eagles Wild Card game.

1. Cowboys win the Wild Card game – The Packers will travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints and the Cowboys will play the Vikings in the Minnesota.  Assuming the Packers beat the Saints, they will will either travel to Dallas or Minnesota for the NFC Championship game.

2. Eagles win the Wild Card game – The Packers will travel to Minnesota and the Eagles will play in New Orleans.  Assuming the Packers beat the Vikings, the Packers will either play the NFC championship in New Orleans against the Saints or host the Eagles in Lambeau for the NFC championship.

Now back to the present moment, beating the Cardinals again.  Go Pack Go!