After twelve weeks, the playoff picture is coming into focus.  The Bears and Panthers  are both out of the playoff hunt after embarrassing losses on Sunday.  The Cowboys and Eagles are in a heated divisional race.  One of those two teams will win the NFC East and the other will be looking for a Wild Card slot.  Which team will win the division may very well be decided in a week 17 head-to-head matchup in Dallas.

The Packers will need to win at least 3 of the remaining 5 games to realistically clinch a Wild Card birth.  The Packers have a very good shot at this with 3 possibly easy wins against the Bears, Seahawks and Cardinals:  The Bears are playing poorly and worse than their 4-7 record would indicate. The Seahawks are not a good team and will be playing in Green Bay in the cold.  The Cardinals are likely to be playing for nothing in week 17 and may be resting many of their starters.  The other two games will be tough, playing both the Steelers in the Steel City and the Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Let’s look at a team-by-team breakdown:

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At the same time many in the Midwest are starting to prepare their roasts, the Green Bay Packers will be having their cupcake.  The Lions will host the Packers once again on Thanksgiving for Detroit’s traditional game.  I was a little worried going into this game after the Packers lost CB Al Harris and DE/LB Aaron Kampman in last week’s game.  However, with Detroit QB Matt Stafford doubtful and probably out and WR Calvin Johnson likely being sidelined, I have little fear going into this game.  This is a great opportunity for the Packers to accomplish two goals.

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Watching from my seat in Lambeau Field, I saw the final transition of the Green Bay Packer offense. The protection was there for Rodgers. He was only sacked twice, and received an intentional grounding penalty for not getting the ball over the line of scrimmage. The offensive line opened beautiful gaps, which Ryan Grant had the patience to find and to hit hard. The offense culminated in a beautiful, game ending ‘four minute offense.’  After the struggling Packer defense gave up another touchdown in the late fourth quarter, the Packers led by six and got the ball back on the 9 yard line with 5 minutes and 50 seconds on the clock.  Running from a two tight end formation, the Packers ran for 3 first downs.  This allowed the Packers to run out the clock in victory formation. In back-to-back outings against solid defenses, the Packers offense did what it needed to do to win.  The Packers now control their own destiny in the Wild Card race.  It appears the Packers’ problems with running the football and protecting the quarterback are over, but (as the old the old English proverb goes) out of the frying pan and into the fire.

In this Pyrrhic victory over the 49ers, the Packers lost two defensive Pro Bowlers.  Both Al Harris and Aaron Kampman injured their left knees and are out for the season.  Al Harris is an icon on the Packers defense and his blanketing coverage will be missed.  Tramon Williams will be the starting cornerback for the Packers going forward.  He has some big shoes to fill and will be tested early and often by opposing offenses.  Jarreet Bush and Brandon Underwood have been moved to the nickel and dime positions respectively.  The Packers have just added former Bronco CB Josh Bell, who may get playing time at nickel or dime as well.

Aaron Kampman is a frustrating loss for the Packers.  He just seemed to be getting adjusted to the 3-4 defense (complete with a sack in the first half.)  He is a pass rushing specialist and will be dearly missed.  We are yet to see what is going to happen at left outside linebacker as no roster changes have been made.  I expect to see a combination of Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga at the position.  Brad Jones did an acceptable job against Dallas but his pass rushing skills are questionable at best.    Poppinga may be able to develop into more of a pass rusher to help fill the void left by Kampman.  This could change if the Packers pick up another linebacker.

Now that the Packers have solved the problems that have dogged them all season, they have a new set of problems.  I think the Packers still have what it takes to win.  We need Williams and Jones to play at an extremely high level.  Other players are going to need to step up and make plays to fill the void of Harris and Kampman.  I think the Green Bay defense has the personnel to come out and make big plays and force turnovers, we just need to get it done.  Go Pack Go

The Packers have clawed their way back into a Wild Card spot.  If the season ended today, the Packers would have earned a playoff birth.  With a Falcons loss in overtime to the Giants, the Packers move up to the number two slot.  Now, the Packers fully control their own destiny.  With losses for the Bears, Panthers and 49ers, these teams are effectively out of the Wild Card race.

Eagles (6-4) - The Eagles squeaked by the Bears, thanks in part to Crybaby Cutler’s inability to hit open receivers.  Next week they host the Redskins.

Packers (6-4) - The Packers have beaten the 49ers and now control their own destiny.  Next week they play Detroit in Detroit.  Normally this would be a welcome sight but with Stafford coming off a 5 touchdown game, Al Harris out, and only having four days rest, it could be trouble.

Giants (6-4) – The Giants come off of a close win over the Falcons.  On Thanksgiving, the Giants travel to Denver to play the now struggling Broncos.

Falcons (5-5) – Being on the losing end of an overtime loss is never a good experience for a team.  However, for most teams, playing the Buccaneers the following week at home is a good experience.

49ers (4-6) –  The loss to the Packers has all but killed the 49er’s playoff hopes.  They play Jacksonville next week.

Panthers (4-6) – The loss to the Dolphins has all but knocked the Panthers out of contention.  They travel to New York to play the Jets.

Bears (4-6) – The Bears are done and this will be the last week they appear in this blog.  The Bears travel to Minnesota to lose to the Vikings next week.

In 1995, “the real Super Bowl” was going to be the Cowboys and 49ers in the NFC championship, as no AFC team could compete with either powerhouse. San Fransisco was the favorite to beat Dallas and, by default, win the Super Bowl. All the 49ers had to do was to beat the Packers, the Cinderella team that managed to make it to the divisional playoff game, and they would be in “the real Super Bowl.” I remember vividly watching with my extended family when, in the opening moments of the game, Craig Newsome returned a fumble 38 yards for a touchdown. All of a sudden, it seemed like the 49ers were not so unbeatable. Favre followed this with back-to-back touchdowns to Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura to put the Packers up 21-0, a lead that proved insurmountable to the 49ers, who would lose 27-17. Green Bay and San Francisco would go on to become strong playoff rivals in the 1990s.

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Aaron Rodgers’s victory over the Cowboys is his greatest triumph to date.  In this game, Rodgers led his inspired team out to the field, ready to steal victory from the heavily favored Cowboys.  With a bad loss against a winless Tampa Bay, the Packers had put their backs against the wall.  The Packers were looking to avenge their losses in recent years against the hated conference rival.   Both teams came out of the tunnel ready to play.  The first half of this game would be a defensive struggle, when the half time whistle blew, the Packers were up 3-0.

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The Wild Card race just got a lot more interesting.  After a whirlwind of exciting football, the Wild Card race has tightened and is now wide open for the team that wants it the most.  The Packers would lose tie breakers against the Eagles and Falcons and just miss the play offs if the season ended today.  They have a chance to keep that positioning and knock the 49ers all but out  this week in Lambeau Field.  Here is a look at the Wild Card picture from top to bottom.

Eagles (5-4) - The Eagles lost a tough game to the San Diego Chargers this week.  They will be seeking a bounce back victory over the Bears in week 11, which Lombardi Sweep thinks is very likely.

Falcons (5-4) – The Falcons loss helped prevent them from running away with a Wild Card spot.  They play the Giants next week, possibly without Michael Turner.

Packers (5 -4) - The Packers beauteous victory over the Cowboys brings them from a game back, to right in the running.  They have a chance to continue their momentum when they host the 49ers.

Giants (5-4) – The Giants slid down a slot during their bye due to a Packers Victory.  The Giant’s play the Falcons next week.

49ers (4-5) –  The 49ers trounced the Bears despite only putting up 10 points on the board.  Their defense looks solid but their offense only put up 10 points on 5 Crybaby Cutler interceptions.  They play the Packers this week in Lambeau.

Panthers (4-5) – The Panthers maybe the sleeper in the Wild Card race.  They beat the Falcons solidly and play the Dolphins Thursday night.

Bears (4-5) – The Bears lost to the 49ers and with a loss against the Eagles next week likely, are most likely out of the Wild Card hunt.

The Cowboys are the hot team in the NFC. They just beat division rival Philadelphia and took first place in the NFC East. After the Packers’ loss to the hapless Buccaneers, it would seem like a hopeless game for Green Bay, but that is just not true.

Romo Crying

The Packers know this is a make or break game for them, and they are most likely to come out and play like it.  One of the best pieces of off-the-field news came out yesterday.  It turns out that on Monday, the Packers offense came together and had an open and candid discussion about their subpar performances.  They made a renewed commitment to each other and to win.

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On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers lock horns with their hated rival, the Dallas Cowboys.  Yes, that’s right: “hated rival.”  While many outsiders consider only the Bears and Vikings when they think of Packer foes, loyal followers of the Green and Gold find it difficult to cast their eyes upon the blue star logo of the so-called “America’s Team” without vomiting.

The long history of these organizations includes NFL Championship games following the 1966 and 1967 campaigns, earning the rights to pay in Super Bowls I and II respectively.  (Spoiler alert: All four were won by the Packers.)  The 1967 game was the famed Ice Bowl, attended by my grandparents, and won by the Packers on a last-second Bart Starr quarterback sneak.  (In the seat next to my grandparents was a female Dallas fan in open-toed shoes–the temperature at game time was -13.  She left at halftime.) (more…)

The Packers will not not make it to the Super Bowl.  The Packers will not win the division and, as of right now, they are a long shot for the Wild Card.  But they are not a bad or a bottom tier team either.  The Packers have lost two high profile games to Favre and the Vikings.  They also lost to a winless team, which is very embarrassing.

The Pack did beat the Bears on opening night in a national game.  They mercilessly destroyed three hapless bottom-of-the-barrel teams.  They are currently, the definition of a .500 team.  It was only 3 years ago, that the Packers finished .500 with Mike McCarthy and we here at Lombardi Sweep were ecstatic.  This season, especially with such high expectations coming in, we cannot help but feel depressed with being .500 at midseason.

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