In Part I we took a look at the new and improved Packers, in Part II we looked at the declining Vikings, in the third and final installment, we will look at the match-up and why the Packers will be or at least should be victorious.

The Packers advantage lies with the Packers healthy defensive backs covering a Vikings receiver corps missing Berrian, the higher level play from the linebackers and line, the packers receivers playing against questionable defensive backs and the improved offensive line.

The return of Bigby and a much healthier Collins completely changes the Packers match up.  In the last match-up, the Vikings exploited the Packers safety situation.  An image that burned into my mind was Berrian trotting into the end zone as Harris threw his hands up in frustration at backup SS Derrick Martin’s failure to provide the expected over the top safety coverage.  With Bigby back, I feel fairly confident we won’t have to witness that again.  Without Berrian, the Vikings are unlikely to run any 4 wide formations.  Berrian’s replacement Greg Lewis lacks the play making ability that Berrian has.  He can get separation but is not physical, which will not make his day easy with the Packers physical defense.  Now that all the Packers starting DBs are back, they should be back in their 2 interceptions a game form.  I think we can expect at least one pick from our DBs.

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When I suggested in Part I of this article that the Vikings were on a decline, I got some strong disagreement from Vikings fans.  Even if you bleed purple, losing after 6 straight victories is a step back at minimum, if not a decline.  The Vikings have gone from winning 5 straight and then stumbled a little bit.  They barely beat the Ravens, mostly thanks to a missed 44 yard field goal as time expired.  That game may have been a Pyrrhic victory as they lost Pro Bowl cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) for up to 6 weeks.After this nail-biting victory, the Vikings gave up their first loss to Pittsburgh Steelers in a hard fought game.

Losing Antoine Winfield is a huge loss for the Vikings.  Anytime a team loses a Pro Bowl corner, it is a tough loss but it really opens things up for the Packers.  Winfield was arguably the Vikings defensive player of the game in these teams’ first meeting.  He had a team high 9 tackles, two passes defended and the Vikings’ sole interception, or 50% of Aaron Rodgers interceptions on the year.  His replacement is Karl Paymah.  Paymah, is good size for a corner, (6’0″, 195lbs,) fast, with a 4.36 second 40 yard dash at the combine but has problems playing the ball and finishing the play.  The absence of Winfield also puts pressure on Minnesota’s safeties Tyrell Johnson and Madieu Williams.  These two safeties are not superstars at coverage and were beaten for a lot of the Packers 342 passing yards in their last meeting.  They also have given up big touchdown plays in the last two games.

The other changes in the Vikings between the last time the Packers played the Vikings is at wide receiver.  The Vikings have lost Bernard Berrian for at least this week.  Berrian is always a big-play threat and his absence will be felt by the Vikings.  Also, since the Packers last meeting, it should be mentioned that Sidney Rice has become a go-to target for Brett Favre.  He has had big games against both the Steelers and the Ravens.

Part III will discuss how these teams match up and why the Packers should win.

Such specific instructions on how to treat Brett Favre Sunday from Garry D. Howard (“Cheer first, jeer later”). On the way home from work, I had the displeasure of listening to a surprisingly stupid caller on the Sirius NFL channel give similar advice. Thanks for your opinions, gentlemen, but nobody asked you.

It’s always been my opinion that fans have the right to boo whenever they like, and I get very sick of shushing fans and complaining players. Now, for me personally, I wouldn’t ever boo anyone on my team who’s giving it his all–whatever he’s screwed up I’m sure he feels worse about it than I do. The other team is a different story. Regardless of how I feel, each fan pays his or her money and have the right to express themselves as they please. (Obviously within reason: I’m not talking about spouting racist epithets or throwing things on the field.)

I’d make the case that Packer fans should boo Mr. Favre–and not good naturedly.

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The main argument against the Packers has been that they were playing weak teams, so their excellent performance means nothing. But the people who take this stance are being awfully short-sighted.  Eight out of the 32 NFL teams are outright terrible, in no particular order:

Titans
Buccaneers
Rams
Chiefs
Browns
Lions
Redskins
Raiders

That’s 25% of the league.  If you add  in honorable mentions to the slumping 49ers and the Bills, it is almost one third of the league is down right terrible.

As a result, many argue that the Packers are not a good team, and that their latest triumphs don’t mean anything because they were playing bad teams.  The Packers did what they were supposed to do and better than others.  Nobody suggests the Colts are bad because they played the Rams and the Titans back-to-back, allowed these two winless teams to score 5 times the amount of points, 15, as the Packers did.  The Packers have played superbly against bad teams.  I, for one, expect the Packers to continue to play at this level against the Vikings.

Go Pack Go

There was a little surprise when the 4-2 Packers are three-point favorites over the 6-1 Vikings in the big NFC North rematch. The stakes are high.  A win puts the Packers right on the Vikings’ heels, and a loss puts Packers almost out of reach of a division title. The Packers have become increasingly dominant and at the same time the Vikings seemed to have reached their apex and be on the decline. This makes it seem fitting that the Packers are favorites in their own house.

The Packers have done what good teams do: beat bad teams solidly and decisively.  The Browns and the Lions were completely hapless against the Packers.  The Packers dominated both sides of the ball and for the most part, have done well on special teams as well. The Packers have out scored their last two opponents by 57-3  and have out gained their opponents  895 to 288 in total yards.

The Packers have also seen the development and improvement of their team.  The Packers offensive line has seemed to gell.  OT TJ Lang has done a solid job filling in for Clifton and C Scott Wells manhandled the talented NT Shaun Rogers while filling in for Spitz.    Lang and Wells have done so well, they are looking like they will continue to start even after the former starters heal.  Another bright spot: the Packers may have rediscovered the running game that they lost years ago.  The Packers ran for 202 yards against the Browns and unlike previous games, the majority of these yards did not come at mop-up time.  If this continues it will open up the play-action pass and prevent defensive ends from doing a straight QB rush.  The icing on the cake is in the passing game with the reemergence of Donald Driver as a big-play receiver and the near flawless recent performance of Aaron Rodgers.

The defense has come together again with improving performance by the linebackers, Clay Matthews and Nick Barnett in particular.  Safeties Nick Collins and Atari Bigby have recovered from their injuries and are playing at their former levels.  The Packers corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, continue their high caliber play.   BJ Raji is playing at a higher level on the defensive line.  Johnny Jolly has been immovable and able to make plays against the pass and the run.  There is a lot to be excited about with this explosive turnover-generating defense.

Part II will look at the Vikings decline and how the Packers match up.

This Sunday was the first time all season that the Trifecta has occurred in the NFC North.  The Packers beat their opponent soundly and decisively, the Vikings lost their first game and the Bears suffered total and utter humiliation in Cincinnati.  The only negative notes for the Packers were the injuries of TE Jermichael Finley and Brett Swain, who is out for the season.  There is a silver lining in TE Spencer Havner’s performance when filling in for Finley: he caught a 45 yard touchdown.

This wonderful Sunday sets up the stage for next week.  If the Packers win, they will only be a half-game back from the Vikings.  Also, it will prevent the Vikings from having the tie-breaker advantage for head-to-head record.   If the Packers want a realistic shot at winning the division, this is a must win game.  If for some tragic reason, they lose, they will be 2.5 games back and have lost the tie breaker.

Go Pack Go

Anybody who reads about the Packers after yesterday’s game would think that the Packers lost to the Lions as opposed to shutting them out.  The Packers came out and did exactly what they had to do: win the game and win the game early.  The press has been focusing on the number of penalties–13 for 130 yards–and five sacks of Aaron Rodgers.  Here are some highlights from the game against the Lions that the mainstream media has missed.

1. Donald Driver had an unbelievable one-handed catch even while the defensive back was holding his other arm. He also became the all-time leader in receptions for the Packers which means he has caught more passes wearing green and gold than James Lofton, Robert Brooks, Don Hutson, and Sterling Sharpe.

2. TJ Lang came in for Clifton after he was injured.  TJ Lang had a solid–albeit short–performance at tackle.  Maybe Lang will be man the Packers need at that spot in the line.

3. Nick Collins laid one of the hardest hits I have seen in football yesterday.   Collins hit Calvin Johnson with his shoulder pads right to Johnson’s chest at full speed.  The hit was so hard that Johnson was laid out on the ground, twitching, nearly motionless.

4. Atari Bigby had a great read that led to a pick.  You could tell that not only is he a solid player but that he gives a play making difference to the Packers.

5. Al Harris had a game ball winning game against the Lions.  Al Harris had a huge drive-stopping quarterback sack and a great interception.  Anytime one player stops two drives cold by making plays, it is impressive.

There is something that is distinctly missing from the Green Bay offense: the run game.  Fans of the Green and Gold have not seen a solid run game since the 2003 season, when Ahman Green ran for 1883 yards, 15 touchdowns and the Packers averaged 5.3 yards a carry.  The closest the Packers came since was 2007,  when the Packers rushing corp gave us 1534 yards, averaging 4.4 yards a rush for 13 touchdowns.

Mike McCarthy came to Green Bay with a plan to incorporate a zone running scheme (for a great explanation, go here).  This scheme at its most basic level is the offensive lineman blocks the most dangerous lineman near them while a “one-cut” running back hits the whole created and makes one-cut and runs.  Zone runnings was popularized by the Denver Broncos in the nineties where Alex Gibbs had great success with his zone blocking.   However, this strategy has not worked so far for McCarthy.  During 2007, McCarthy’s most successful season running this scheme, most runs would fall short of 3 yards with a few break away runs for big gains a game.  It has not been successful for 3-5 yards a carry to consistently move the chains on the ground.

McCarthy has had 3.25 years to get his zone running scheme working with little to no success.   There is a high cost of being a one dimensional offensive team.   The failure of the zone running has killed the Packers play action passing game, allowed opponent DBs to have lots of safety help and has not kept defensive lines or blitzers honest.   Something needs to change or the Packers will be doomed to mediocrity or worse.

It’s only been four games but already it’s been a long emotional slog for the 2009 Green Bay Packers. From a thrilling last minute win over the arch-rival Chicago bears to a Lambeau Leap from an obnoxious enemy receiver to Monday night’s disappointment, there’s already been enough drama for an entire season.  Going into bye week, the Packers are 2-2 with a ton of football left to played.

Even in their victories, Green Bay has not played like the team many of us expected coming out of preseason.  I’m sure Coach McCarthy will spend the bye week figuring out how his team can improve in any number of areas, including:

1. Penalties.  Green Bay is third in the league with 30 penalties.  Once during the Fox halftime show, a panel member suggested that when you attempt a half-ending or game-ending field goal, you should always leave enough time left on the clock to allow for any run-off that might result from a penalty.  Jimmy Johnson disagreed.  “You leave one second on the clock, and you tell your team to execute.”  A winning football team must not stall their own drives, must not give opponents second chances, must not give opponents’ drives new life.

2. Protect the Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 20 times, the most times in the league–by far.  No one can perform well under those circumstances.  By contrast, Peyton Manning has been sacked twice.  The Packers may need to bring in a veteran old warhorse lineman.  They may need to keep tight ends and fullbacks in on more plays.  But the quarterback must have time to throw the ball.

3. Greg Jennings MIA Greg Jennings is averaging about a 100 yards receiving in the Packers’ victories and about 15 yards in their losses.  It’s not just that he doesn’t have great games, either–it’s that he disappears and you don’t even hear his number called.  The Packers may want to think about what the Patriots do with Randy Moss when he’s not getting open:  WR screens, end arounds, anything to get his hands on the ball and get him in the rhythm of the game.

While the well-hyped Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre showdown nears, the media have forgotten another rivalry.  The rivalry between Mike McCarthy and Brad Childress.  Often described as professional, their relationship is in reality a strong dislike of each other.  This rivalry goes all the way back to when the Vikings and the Packers hired their respective coaches.  The story goes that Childress was interviewed in Minnesota and afterwards was supposed to go to Green Bay to interview there.  The Vikings owner, Zygi Wilf, was so impressed that he kept Childress in Minnesota another day so we could sign him before Childress could even be interviewed by the Packers.  Six days later, the Packers hired Mike McCarthy as head coach of the Packers.

Later on, Childress would say that he could have been the Packers head coach but took the Vikings job instead.  The Packers organization would later refute this and state that Childress was never offered the job.  This helped increase the intensity of the hatred between these coaches and organizations.  Then, in 2008, the Packers filed tampering charges against Childress for illegally courting Brett Favre.  The Vikings were eventually determined to have not been guilty of tampering, but the accusation added more fuel to the fire.

Worse still, after the Packer victory in Lambeau last year, Childress refused to shake hands with McCarthy.  Childress would later claim that he was trying to console Tarvaris Jackson for his late interception.  Childress’ excuse seemed flimsy at best.   Is Jackson an adult professional athlete or a six-year-old who struck out in tee ball?  Now that Childress has signed Favre and has pitted him against the Packers, the dislike is sure to increase.  Look for a lot of passion from both coaches this week in what is clearly more that “just another divisional game.”

Predicted score – Packers 31 Vikings 27.   Go Pack Go.